The early voting figures are coming in – and the Republican Party currently has an edge in some major areas. So far the evidence doesn’t show any “blue wave,” but there might be some blood in the water that’s turning the wave purple in key battleground states.
According to NBC News, “GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas,” according to data analyzed by the NBC News Data Analytics Lab.
To break down the races more specifically in states where NBC provided data:
Arizona – 44% of early voters are Republican, compared to 33% Democrat.
Florida – 44% of early voters are Republican, compared to 38% Democrat.
Georgia – 52% of early voters are Republican, compared to 43% Democrat.
Indiana – 51% of early voters are Republican, compared to 39% Democrat.
Montana – 46% of early voters are Republican, compared to 29% Democrat.
Tennessee – 63% of early voters are Republican, compared to 30% Democrat.
Texas – 53% of early voters are Republican, compared to 43% Democrat.
The outlier is Nevada – 38% of early voters are Republican, compared to 45% Democrat.
Early voting tilting towards the GOP is a good omen – and it’s hardly the only factor pointing towards GOP victory.
As Republicans campaign on lower taxes, leaner government, and border security, Democrats run almost exclusively on tax hikes, open borders, and conspiracy theories about “Russian collusion,” rather than promote any ideas of their own. At this point even some Democrats must be wondering what exactly their party has to offer.
Generic Democrats poll well nationally, but lag behind in actual races
Much of the polling that supports the thesis that Democrats will take back the House has relied on generic polling – asking people who they’d choose to vote for between a nameless, faceless Democrat, and a nameless, faceless, Republican, nationwide.
[totalpoll id=”150329″]
While generic Democrats have been polling ahead of generic Republicans, the numbers are optimistic when you look at actual contests. According to ABC News, “inside the 66 districts that are tossups, or only leaning toward one party or the other — the majority makers, or breakers — that lead evaporates into a 46-47 Democrats v. Republicans race.”
Republicans far outpace Democrats in fundraising
The RNC has crushed the DNC in fundraising every month since Donald Trump became President.
As of July, the RNC brought in over $227.2 million and has no debt, while the DNC has $6 million in debt.
However, Democrats have raised $252 million towards the most competitive House races as of October 15th, while Republicans raised $172 million. Still, this isn’t as impressive as it seems, as Democrats nationally are working to help candidates in states they don’t reside in themselves. For instance, while Beto O’Rourke is dominating Cruz in fundraising for the Texas Senate race, having brought in $38 million to Cruz’s $12 million, Cruz is still expected to handily win. In other words, while Democrats have been out-fundraising Republicans in individual races, it’s not necessarily by people who can actually vote for them.
While we can make better estimates as to how the midterms will turn out based on the data presented above, nothing is a guarantee. Remember when it was a virtual certainly that Hillary Clinton would be the next POTUS?
While the polls are optimistic for Republican so far, there’s only one way to guarantee that they’ll turn out as projected: voting.
I am more inclined to believe a Red Wave this year than a Blue Wave! I always get a mail in ballot for several reasons: 1) It comes about a month before the election so I have time to research the Amendments our state has allowed on the ballot. Sometimes they are written in such a way that on the surface appear to be exactly the opposite of what they are. So I always read up on the amendments that made it to the final ballot. 2) Florida has Judges listed, and we vote to “retain” them or not. I talk to folks I know about their experiences with any Judge on the ballot and also look up the Judge’s history so I can make an informed decision. The only time I do not vote for or against a Judge is if there is absolutely no info to garner on him or her. This is rare but does happen! 3) I like the mail ballot because I can take my time and fill it out. I NEVER mail a ballot back. I hand-deliver it myself at the Supervisor of Elections Polling place via drive thru. It gets put in a locked barrel and I get my “I Voted” sticker. This can be done during posted “Early Voting Days” so I can vote early or take it on Election Day – which is what I did when I cast my vote for Donald J. Trump! (Yes, I was one of those who never said who I was voting for to a stranger or a Democrat, or a pollster!). 4) Another reason I prefer the mail ballot is if for any reason the voting machines fail or aren’t working when I get to the polling place, I know my ballot will be filled out and my vote will count. I wish every legally registered voter got a mail ballot. Maybe more people would then vote and we wouldn’t have to worry about “Hanging Chads” or voting machines which reverse your vote!
i would like to see a complete landslide victory for the republicans, if this happen they should have no doth what we want them to do. we also need to push for the democrats to be held accountable, we need an investigation into their collusion with foreign countries , they have colluded with at least 3 countries, china, Iran,and Russia in the last 30 years, they have sold us out way to many times and caused way to much violence in this country and all over the world with their policies, they also caused this caravan and brought south american gangs to this country like m-13 and others by their immigration policies. they do for themselves not for this country or the people in it, they have proven all they want is absolute power and control. if they get that they will make Hitler look like a quire boy.
How could any American vote democratic???
First, why is this awaiting moderation? I see nothing objectionable in what I posted.
Then, it’s supposed to read “…congressional race…” and don’t know how it came out “raise” instead of ‘race.’
In my state there is one congressional raise that is essentially a dead heat. The republican candidtate will likely lose in the long run because in previous contests that he’s run in, he was the winner in intitial vote counts, but those were so close there was a recount. Then, what do you know, the democrats found votes that had not been previously counted. It happened through two recounts and he eventually lost becasue the dems always found MORE dem votes that had not been previously counted. It’s really odd how that works out and I remain suspicious and do not trust democrat politicians… any time, any place!
Really good news, the Nazicrats might become suicidal when they lose the mid terms.
VOTE REPUBLICAN
We must keep the enthusiasm high! Encourage every Republican you know to vote on Nov 6. Encourage every Democrat you know to vote on Nov 7. :)
What’s really Scary the Hosebag Pelosi is only 1/2 as Stupid as her $upporter$ !!
Good Job, James!
For what it’s worth, I voted early and straight Repub.
These people need to understand that our country in not to be used by those who have no country who care for them. I am stunned at the amount of women that keep having children that they can’t feed and cloth and think they are owed that from the US. They will take over and the murder rate will go way up and our own citizens will suffer. I wish then a better life but not on American soil.
This is good news!!
Welcome to the Republican Party. I hope Republicans always do the honorable thing in any situation. I think that helps to attract new Republican voters. Their past manners were what made the decision for me – years ago. If they ever behave like the “Resistance” party, I would register as an Independent. Hopefully, this will not happen as I like to have a say in the Primaries!
In the state where I reside there’s never been “early voting” but it has mail in voting exclusively. The bellots have been delivered and I filled mine out and got it back ASAP. I don’t know if the ballots are counted as they come in or are held until election day to be counted, but they do wait for complate counts for awhile because the ballots must be postmarked by election day… not be delivered. This state also has a peculiarity in that there is no registration by party and the primary election is not by party so the two highest vote getters go to the general election regardless, so it’s possible that there can be two candidates of the same party for the same position as happened this years where there are two dems running for the same position. It leaves many republicans disenfranchised, but the courts let it stand. Says something about judicial bias.
For some reason; I like voting on Election day and always skip absentee ballots and early voting opportunities. I like to be on the peak of the wave just before it reaches shore. I guess in certain instances,it also gives me time to digest any new developments that could potentially leave me with regrets. Ever since Obama’s second term; I’ve learned to do as much due diligence as Humanly possible. I’m recently a registered Republican after years of being an Independant. I have no room for what passes as Democrat these days and Socialism isn’t my bag unless God himself is sending out the checks!
LOL!
There was never a blue wave. That was the tidy bowl circling the toilet bowl, flushing the DIMocRATS down the drain.
I am more inclined to believe a Red Wave this year than a Blue Wave! I always get a mail in ballot for several reasons: 1) It comes about a month before the election so I have time to research the Amendments our state has allowed on the ballot. Sometimes they are written in such a way that on the surface appear to be exactly the opposite of what they are. So I always read up on the amendments that made it to the final ballot. 2) Florida has Judges listed, and we vote to “retain” them or not. I talk to folks I know about their experiences with any Judge on the ballot and also look up the Judge’s history so I can make an informed decision. The only time I do not vote for or against a Judge is if there is absolutely no info to garner on him or her. This is rare but does happen! 3) I like the mail ballot because I can take my time and fill it out. I NEVER mail a ballot back. I hand-deliver it myself at the Supervisor of Elections Polling place via drive thru. It gets put in a locked barrel and I get my “I Voted” sticker. This can be done during posted “Early Voting Days” so I can vote early or take it on Election Day – which is what I did when I cast my vote for Donald J. Trump! (Yes, I was one of those who never said who I was voting for to a stranger or a Democrat, or a pollster!). 4) Another reason I prefer the mail ballot is if for any reason the voting machines fail or aren’t working when I get to the polling place, I know my ballot will be filled out and my vote will count. I wish every legally registered voter got a mail ballot. Maybe more people would then vote and we wouldn’t have to worry about “Hanging Chads” or voting machines which reverse your vote!
i would like to see a complete landslide victory for the republicans, if this happen they should have no doth what we want them to do. we also need to push for the democrats to be held accountable, we need an investigation into their collusion with foreign countries , they have colluded with at least 3 countries, china, Iran,and Russia in the last 30 years, they have sold us out way to many times and caused way to much violence in this country and all over the world with their policies, they also caused this caravan and brought south american gangs to this country like m-13 and others by their immigration policies. they do for themselves not for this country or the people in it, they have proven all they want is absolute power and control. if they get that they will make Hitler look like a quire boy.
How could any American vote democratic???
In my state there is one congressional raise that is essentially a dead heat. The republican candidtate will likely lose in the long run because in previous contests that he’s run in, he was the winner in intitial vote counts, but those were so close there was a recount. Then, what do you know, the democrats found votes that had not been previously counted. It happened through two recounts and he eventually lost becasue the dems always found MORE dem votes that had not been previously counted. It’s really odd how that works out and I remain suspicious and do not trust democrat politicians… any time, any place!
First, why is this awaiting moderation? I see nothing objectionable in what I posted.
Then, it’s supposed to read “…congressional race…” and don’t know how it came out “raise” instead of ‘race.’
Really good news, the Nazicrats might become suicidal when they lose the mid terms.
VOTE REPUBLICAN
We must keep the enthusiasm high! Encourage every Republican you know to vote on Nov 6. Encourage every Democrat you know to vote on Nov 7. :)
What’s really Scary the Hosebag Pelosi is only 1/2 as Stupid as her $upporter$ !!
For what it’s worth, I voted early and straight Repub.
Good Job, James!
These people need to understand that our country in not to be used by those who have no country who care for them. I am stunned at the amount of women that keep having children that they can’t feed and cloth and think they are owed that from the US. They will take over and the murder rate will go way up and our own citizens will suffer. I wish then a better life but not on American soil.
This is good news!!
For some reason; I like voting on Election day and always skip absentee ballots and early voting opportunities. I like to be on the peak of the wave just before it reaches shore. I guess in certain instances,it also gives me time to digest any new developments that could potentially leave me with regrets. Ever since Obama’s second term; I’ve learned to do as much due diligence as Humanly possible. I’m recently a registered Republican after years of being an Independant. I have no room for what passes as Democrat these days and Socialism isn’t my bag unless God himself is sending out the checks!
In the state where I reside there’s never been “early voting” but it has mail in voting exclusively. The bellots have been delivered and I filled mine out and got it back ASAP. I don’t know if the ballots are counted as they come in or are held until election day to be counted, but they do wait for complate counts for awhile because the ballots must be postmarked by election day… not be delivered. This state also has a peculiarity in that there is no registration by party and the primary election is not by party so the two highest vote getters go to the general election regardless, so it’s possible that there can be two candidates of the same party for the same position as happened this years where there are two dems running for the same position. It leaves many republicans disenfranchised, but the courts let it stand. Says something about judicial bias.
Welcome to the Republican Party. I hope Republicans always do the honorable thing in any situation. I think that helps to attract new Republican voters. Their past manners were what made the decision for me – years ago. If they ever behave like the “Resistance” party, I would register as an Independent. Hopefully, this will not happen as I like to have a say in the Primaries!
There was never a blue wave. That was the tidy bowl circling the toilet bowl, flushing the DIMocRATS down the drain.
LOL!