The early voting figures are coming in – and the Republican Party currently has an edge in some major areas. So far the evidence doesn’t show any “blue wave,” but there might be some blood in the water that’s turning the wave purple in key battleground states.
According to NBC News, “GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas,” according to data analyzed by the NBC News Data Analytics Lab.
To break down the races more specifically in states where NBC provided data:
Arizona – 44% of early voters are Republican, compared to 33% Democrat.
Florida – 44% of early voters are Republican, compared to 38% Democrat.
Georgia – 52% of early voters are Republican, compared to 43% Democrat.
Indiana – 51% of early voters are Republican, compared to 39% Democrat.
Montana – 46% of early voters are Republican, compared to 29% Democrat.
Tennessee – 63% of early voters are Republican, compared to 30% Democrat.
Texas – 53% of early voters are Republican, compared to 43% Democrat.
The outlier is Nevada – 38% of early voters are Republican, compared to 45% Democrat.
Early voting tilting towards the GOP is a good omen – and it’s hardly the only factor pointing towards GOP victory.
As Republicans campaign on lower taxes, leaner government, and border security, Democrats run almost exclusively on tax hikes, open borders, and conspiracy theories about “Russian collusion,” rather than promote any ideas of their own. At this point even some Democrats must be wondering what exactly their party has to offer.
Generic Democrats poll well nationally, but lag behind in actual races
Much of the polling that supports the thesis that Democrats will take back the House has relied on generic polling – asking people who they’d choose to vote for between a nameless, faceless Democrat, and a nameless, faceless, Republican, nationwide.
While generic Democrats have been polling ahead of generic Republicans, the numbers are optimistic when you look at actual contests. According to ABC News, “inside the 66 districts that are tossups, or only leaning toward one party or the other — the majority makers, or breakers — that lead evaporates into a 46-47 Democrats v. Republicans race.”
Republicans far outpace Democrats in fundraising
The RNC has crushed the DNC in fundraising every month since Donald Trump became President.
As of July, the RNC brought in over $227.2 million and has no debt, while the DNC has $6 million in debt.
However, Democrats have raised $252 million towards the most competitive House races as of October 15th, while Republicans raised $172 million. Still, this isn’t as impressive as it seems, as Democrats nationally are working to help candidates in states they don’t reside in themselves. For instance, while Beto O’Rourke is dominating Cruz in fundraising for the Texas Senate race, having brought in $38 million to Cruz’s $12 million, Cruz is still expected to handily win. In other words, while Democrats have been out-fundraising Republicans in individual races, it’s not necessarily by people who can actually vote for them.
While we can make better estimates as to how the midterms will turn out based on the data presented above, nothing is a guarantee. Remember when it was a virtual certainly that Hillary Clinton would be the next POTUS?
While the polls are optimistic for Republican so far, there’s only one way to guarantee that they’ll turn out as projected: voting.