A new poll shows that if the 2024 presidential election were held today, former President Donald Trump would trounce President Joe Biden in the state of Iowa by 11 percent.
The poll was conducted by Des Moines Register/Mediacom.
The Des Moines Register reported on Saturday, “In 2020, Trump defeated Biden by about 8 percentage points, carrying the state 53% to 45%.”
“In the new survey, 51% of likely Iowa voters in the 2024 election would vote for Trump, a Republican, while 40% say they would vote for Biden, a Democrat. Another 4% say they would not vote for either candidate, and 5% are not sure,” the Register noted.
This latest poll emerges at a time when Biden’s approval rating continues to sink and Trump’s favorability is on the rise, as shown by an Iowa poll taken in September.
Independents appear to be the primary factor in Trump’s commanding lead over Biden in Iowa.
The Register reports, “Biden wins support among 95% of Democrats — slightly better than the 91% Trump earns among Republicans. But independents favor Trump by 8 percentage points, 45% to 37%.”
Pollster J. Ann Selzer of Selzer & Co. told the news outlet that “Trump won Iowa convincingly in 2020, and that’s reflected in these data.”
She added, “If all you had in this poll was that Trump would defeat Joe Biden by 11 points, it might say everything is locked up.”
Biden’s job approval has sunk since he entered the White House, with this latest poll showing that Iowans disapprove of his performance as president by about a 2-to-1 margin.
The Register observed, “From September: Iowa Poll: 62% of Iowans disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president. Biden’s job approval has not been in net positive territory in Iowa since March. Then, 47% of Iowans approved of his performance and 44% disapproved.”
Those numbers have shifted.
“Today, one-third of all Iowa adults, 33%, say they approve of the job Biden is doing as president, ticking up 2 percentage points from the Register’s last Iowa Poll, conducted in September; 62% disapprove; and 6% are not sure,” reported the Register.
Selzer said, “This is not a good approval rating by any definition.”
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