When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his “special military operation,” military experts were convinced that Kyiv would fall within 72 hours. The invasion of Ukraine shocked the world, and as the hours ticked by, it became clear that our military experts were wrong, as they tend to be.
Just shy of two years have passed since the invasion, and Ukraine still stands, albeit battered and still occupied by Russian forces. The world rallied behind the Ukrainian people, and their president captivated the West with his charisma and oratorical skills.
However, the hopes of triumph through hard-fought war and the romance behind attaching financial and military aid to a sense of moral superiority have begun to wear thin. The writing was on the wall from the beginning, and now that writing is flashing red so even those who merely whispered doubt are now telling the world to prepare for this war’s inevitable outcome.
The news was always bad
This week, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the quiet part out loud regarding the state of the Ukraine war as the war-torn nation prepares for another winter:
“Wars develop in phases. We have to support Ukraine in both good and bad times. We should also be prepared for bad news.”
The bad news is that Ukraine isn’t winning this war, and they never were; they are losing the war and are heading towards an inevitability.
Last month, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zaluzhny broke away from the usual script out of Ukraine, telling the world what it already knew:
“Just like in the First World War, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.”
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The General went on to lament the lack of support Ukraine really wanted, essentially more advanced weaponry faster:
“It is important to understand that this war cannot be won with the weapons of the past generation and outdated methods. They will inevitably lead to delay and, as a consequence, defeat.”
Barring a full-blown war with boots on the ground, no amount of aid from the West would’ve resulted in a full-out defeat of Russia because it would require the forceful removal of their leader. And the truth is the United State’s track record of success post “bad guy” removal isn’t so good – see Iraq’s Saddam Hussein for reference.
What does bad look like?
The bad news Secretary-General Stoltenberg alludes to isn’t a full-blown takeover of Ukraine, but what the West has never been a fan of – negotiated peace. Former National Security Advisor and war hawk John Bolton warned of this possibility recently, stating:
“I think we’ve got to be very concerned about a Russian diplomatic offensive that tries to win the war over at the bargaining table when the Russian troops can’t win on the battlefield.”
American diplomats’ disdain for diplomacy is a testament to the continued failure at best, nonexistent at worst American foreign policy. In favor of continuing seemingly endless and costly support to Ukraine over an end to hostilities, Mr. Bolton said:
“Ultimately, if we don’t help the Ukrainians out, ultimately Russia will win.”
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Secretary-General Stoltenberg echoed this sentiment:
“The more we support Ukraine, the faster the war will end.”
However, all signs point to the contrary. The much-hailed Ukrainian counteroffensive fell flat like the delicate house of cards this war has become.
It’s enough to wonder why any international leader would advocate for continued wasted aid over negotiated peace.
Can’t Get No Satisfaction
The end of the year is ushering in plenty of worry for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Suppose the American Congress can’t agree on financial support for Ukraine.
In that case, funds will run out by the New Year to send to his country, drying up the largest supplier of assistance to the embattled country. Additionally, the coming of winter is always brutal on wartime presidents as cold sets in, particularly in Eastern Europe, as any student of history knows.
And then, the fast-approaching American presidential election should have everyone concerned on the globe regardless of where they live or where they stand on politics.
President Zelensky, when asked how he felt about the failed counteroffensive and where his army stands today leading into winter, said:
“Look, we are not backing down, I am satisfied. We are fighting with the second best army in the world, I am satisfied.”
However, he added:
“We are losing people, I’m not satisfied. We didn’t get all the weapons we wanted, I can’t be satisfied, but I also can’t complain too much.”
He can’t complain, but it doesn’t mean he wouldn’t be justified. Complaining would be to acknowledge that the flim-flam foreign policy of the West fails those they claim to support, and the West doesn’t do well with truthful criticisms.
For now, the West will continue to find ways to smooth over this failure as they do with all of them – pivot it to a political failing of the party not in power and distract the world with some other noble fight in another foreign land.
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