Robert Cahaly, a chief pollster for the Trafalgar Group, believes there is a “hidden vote” missing from most polls and envisions a victory for President Trump.
Cahaly made the prediction during an interview with Fox News personality Sean Hannity.
“I see the president winning with a minimum high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” he said.
President Trump or Joe Biden would need 270 electoral votes to win the White House.
“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote,” he continued.
“There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions readily.”
Joined @FoxNews @seanhannity tonight to give a glimpse into why our @trafalgar_group polls are showing a tightening race. You can watch the full segment here: https://t.co/sKJEGJZ2g0 pic.twitter.com/gMxFKQ9tE3
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 21, 2020
“These people are more hesitant to participate in polls,” Cahaly added.
“So if you’re not compensating for this, you’re not going to get honest answers.”
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Will The Hidden Vote Carry Trump to Victory?
President Trump has long referenced the ‘hidden vote,’ calling those voters the “silent majority.”
“The Silent Majority will speak on November Third!” he tweeted this past summer.
“We get a lot of suppression polls,” Trump told reporters.
“We get a lot of fake polls, just like we have fake news. I mean, it’s a terrible thing, when you look at it.”
.@realDonaldTrump When Trump says he looks out for you he’s talking about the silent majority or the forgotten American so I’m going to quote a famous American who described the forgotten American “he works he votes he generally prays but he always pays“
— ChuckGrassley (@ChuckGrassley) October 19, 2020
The Trafalgar Group recently released a poll showing President Trump with a narrow lead in the crucial battleground state of Michigan.
A RealClearPolitics index of polls in six battleground states – including Michigan – has Joe Biden in the lead by an average of 4 points, 49.2 percent to 45.2 percent.
Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #MIpoll conducted Oct 11-14 still shows a thin Trump lead:
46.5% @realDonaldTrump,
45.9% @JoeBiden,
2.5% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
2.2% all others,
2.2% Und. See Report: https://t.co/dcPtMMUSpx pic.twitter.com/l1whvPtn1f— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 16, 2020
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Trafalgar Nailed It In 2016
Cahaly, according to the National Review, “believes Trump will win North Carolina and Florida and discounts Biden’s chances in Georgia because the Republican-base vote is too big there.”
He also thinks the President will take Michigan and Arizona, though he is skeptical of his footing right now in Pennsylvania.
“He’d probably win Pennsylvania,” Cahaly said.
“But I’m going to give a caveat on only Pennsylvania. I believe Pennsylvania to be the No. 1 state that Trump could win and have stolen due to voter fraud.”
Thanks to @RichLowry and @NRO for such a good article. “The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead” https://t.co/BpdwXKXaFH
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 19, 2020
While some might dismiss the Trafalgar Group for discussing election polls on a conservative show such as Hannity’s, they can’t dismiss their success.
The pollster was almost exclusively the only group who had Trump winning Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania among others over Hillary Clinton.
“We ended up having an incredible year,” Cahaly boasted of the 2016 election. “I mean, we got Pennsylvania right. We got Michigan right.”
“We had the best poll in five of the battleground states in 2016. And I actually predicted 306 to 232 on the Electoral College.”
They repeated their incredible successes in 2018.
Will they shine once again in predicting a 2020 Trump victory?
