For a number of months, most major national polls have shown 2020 presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a wide margin over Donald Trump, but a new CNN survey shows the President might be closing that divide.
Sunday night, CNN released a poll that showed 50 percent of registered voters indicating they will support Biden in November, with 46 percent saying they will cast their ballot for Trump.
CNN Poll: Biden and Trump matchup tightens as enthusiasm hits new highhttps://t.co/Pqt5N1mJJx
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) August 17, 2020
Is President Trump closing the gap?
The 4 point margin is a dramatic decrease from the 14 point gap Biden had in the last CNN poll in June.
According to FiveThirtyEight CNN’s June poll as well as Sunday’s new poll were outliers.
In CNN’s June 8th survey, Biden lead by an average of 7.2 points in the polls. Yet on Sunday evening, even averaging in CNN’s latest poll, FiveThirtyEight showed Biden ahead by 8 points.
Biden/Harris 50% (+4)
That’s a 10 point shift towards Trump In a month
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 17, 2020
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Biden’s 10-point lead in CNN’s June poll wasn’t reflected in other polls
A Sunday NBC/Wall Street Journal poll reflected Biden being up 9. The most recent Fox News poll, released on Friday, had Biden up by only 7 points, compared to CNN’s 14 point gap in June.
Positive Trump polling numbers have been hard to find in recent weeks. FiveThirtyEight’s overall margin wasn’t the only one to highlight Team Trump to come out of this latest CNN poll.
In battleground states, CNN found an even tighter race, where Biden has only a small 49-48 lead over Trump in those important election swing states.
CNN polls since end of primary:
April: Biden +11
May: Biden +5
June: Biden +14
August: Biden +4
Definitely the most exciting national poll https://t.co/315hlW1lTq
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) August 17, 2020
Is Trump having a polling comeback at precisely the right time?
Unfortunately for the President, the new CNN poll also revealed that Trump had only 42 percent job approval among registered voters, while 54 percent disapprove.
Still, after months of a ten point losing gap for Trump below Biden and with ten weeks until the election, is it possible that Joe Biden peaked early and President Trump is finally getting his numbers up in a way that will matter for the ultimate poll in November?
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