There’s no question that Republicans will hold the Senate after the November 6th midterms, but the House is still up for grabs. Democrats will need to pick up 23 seats to take the House. The party opposing that of the President is always energized in the midterms, as we all remember from the Red Waves in 1994, 2010, and 2014, as conservatives were energized by opposition to Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. The so-called “resistance” against Trump certainly is energized, and they have the media on their side.
To combat that, Trump is moving to rally his base, campaigning for Republicans in vulnerable seats.
Trump on the Campaign Trail
According to Reuters, “Trump plans to visit Kansas on Saturday (October 6th), Iowa on Tuesday, Pennsylvania on Wednesday, Ohio on Friday and Kentucky on Saturday, Oct. 13, according to the internal memo seen by Reuters. In August and September, Trump campaigned for 10 House candidates in competitive races, flooding local markets with news about the Republicans and the president.”
Even without Trump’s campaigning, Republicans are prepared for battle. The Republican National Committee has out-fund-raised the DNC by a ratio of more than 2 to 1 this year. That’s a continuation of a trend that began with the election of President Donald Trump. Also of note, the RNC has much smaller average donations, which means they’re getting donations from a wide base, while the DNC has more concentrated donations from wealthy donors.
Another variable acting in favor of Republican is that Democrats don’t actually have a platform outside of “resisting Trump.” Issues like combating illegal immigration used to be bipartisan, so in opposing Trump on that issue, the Democrat Party has alienated a large chunk of prospective voters. I mention illegal immigration only to make the point that Democrats are taking wildly unpopular political stances solely because Trump takes the opposite stance. The only actual policy proposals I’ve heard from Democrats ahead of the midterms include raising taxes and gun control, neither of which are popular.
Dems Declining in Popularity?
Political stunts like the witch hunt against Brett Kavanaugh have only contributed to a further decline in Democrat popularity right before the midterms. While Democrats as a whole enjoyed a 14-point lead in the polls against their Republican counterparts, that lead was cut in half in only two weeks thanks to the Kavanaugh circus. According to a poll from the Huffington Post of all places, only 25% of women found the allegations against Kavanaugh credible. The 11th hour attempt to bring back the “Republican war on women” narrative fell flat.
A new Quinnipiac poll shows a drop in support for Democrats since earlier in the month from a 14-point advantage to 7. https://t.co/EPrKslLBvh
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) October 4, 2018
As a candidate, President Donald Trump promised that we’d be tired of winning if he were elected.
I can’t say I’m tired of winning yet, but I imagine Democrats certainly are tired of losing.