On the eve of the midterm elections, the percentage of Americans who are very satisfied with their current financial situation is the highest it’s ever been since NBC and the Wall Street Journal began polling the question.
Of all the metrics used to approximate how tomorrows midterms will pan out, I’ve seen President Donald Trump’s approval rating and how a hypothetical matchup between a “generic Republican” and “generic Democrat” fare in the polls. Trump is polling above where Obama was at this stage of his presidency, and the “generic Democrat” is polling about even with the “generic Republican.”
I hadn’t yet seen the polling about financial satisfaction, and it’s quite incredible.
Overall, 74 percent of Americans are satisfied with their current financial situation – and 28% are very satisfied. That “very satisfied” figure is significant because it’s the highest in the history of the poll. The last time this many people were “very satisfied” with their financial situation was near the height of the tech boom in 1998.
But is the strength of the economy an indicator in midterm elections?
Analysis from Gallup finds that president’s party loses an average 37 House seats when his job approval is below 50%. Democrats need to flip 24 House seats to take it back. Trump’s approval is at 47 percent currently, but there has never been a case in American presidential history where a presidents approval rating has been this relatively low when the unemployment rate has been this low. Part of that is because there are many voters who dislike Donald Trump as a person, not his particular policies.
As Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones noted in a recent analysis of tomorrows midterms:
“55% of Americans rate current economic conditions as excellent or good and 12% as poor, for a net rating of +43. That is far better than the average net rating of +10 since 1994 and better than in all recent midterms except 1998.”
The 1994 midterms were in the middle of Bill Clinton’s first term, and the House swung 54-seats in favor of Republicans. In the 1998 midterms Republicans lost five seats to Democrats in the House, but maintained a narrow majority. Bill Clinton’s approval rating was below 50% during the 1994 midterms and above 50% during the 1998 midterms. With that past evidence considered, the President’s approval appears to be a better indicator than economic strength.
Other factors that could affect voting in the midterms
Despite the aforementioned lead the “generic Democrats” have nationwide, an NBC/WSJ poll found that the “generic” candidates poll identically in the actual House battleground districts (i.e. where it matters most).
In sum:
1) D’s +9 in national generic ballot
2) In House battlegrounds generic ballot tied
3) Trump approval rating highest of presidency
4) GOP largest lead on economy in poll historyThose do not sound like the components of a “blue wave.” https://t.co/CZMK6qSeOY
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) October 21, 2018
Republicans also have an advantage when it comes to money in the bank. According to the New York Times, “Republican national party committees, candidates in key House and Senate races and their top unlimited-money outside groups, or “super PACs,” had $337 million on hand as of Sept. 30. Their Democratic counterparts had $285 million in the bank on the same date.”
Since Trump won the presidency, the Republican National Committee has consistently out-fundraised the Democratic National Committee by a ratio of 2:1.
