Two weeks.
That’s how long we have until the country goes to vote in the so-called midterm elections. Congressional Republicans are looking to hold their majorities in Congress, while Democrats are hoping to win one, if not both, of the chambers.
So far, Democrats have had the advantage in all general ballot polls. According to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregation of generic ballot polling, Democrats hold the advantage across the board, ranging from +1 to +10.
A new poll reveals a surprising twist
President Trump knows Democrats smell blood and are out revving up the base to boost turnout. That’s why he’s been barnstorming the country, holding rally after rally, particularly in red states where a Democrat is up for reelection. And it may be working. While Democrats hold a lead in the polls, Republicans are beginning to see their chances of holding Congress increase ever so slightly.
A new NBC/WSJ poll shows a tightening in support across the country. From NBC:
Fueled by increased enthusiasm from women, Latinos and young voters for the upcoming midterm election, Democrats hold a 9-point lead among likely voters over Republicans in congressional preference, according to the latest national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
But nearly two weeks before Election Day, the same poll also shows President Donald Trump at his highest job rating yet as president, as well as Republicans with their largest lead on the economy in the poll’s history.
In sum:
1) D’s +9 in national generic ballot
2) In House battlegrounds generic ballot tied
3) Trump approval rating highest of presidency
4) GOP largest lead on economy in poll historyThose do not sound like the components of a “blue wave.” https://t.co/CZMK6qSeOY
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) October 21, 2018
Now, does that mean Republicans keep the House and expand their hold of the Senate? It’s unlikely, at least for the former part. The House is still definitely within the Democrats’ grasp. But Republicans increasingly appear to be able to hold the Senate.
More evidence of a ‘blue wave’ crash
Don’t take my word for it. Listen to David Wasserman, who is an editor of the Cook Political Report, a well-respected, non-partisan polling operation. According to Wasserman, “The past few weeks haven’t really diminished Democrats’ chances of a takeover by that much, but they’ve increased the chances of a small Democratic majority.”
Even Sean Sullivan of The Washington Post admits, “Democrats remain favored to win, but GOP leaders believe they can minimize the number of seats they would lose — and, perhaps, find a path to preserving their advantage in the chamber.”
However, there are still two weeks left before election day, which any seasoned campaigner will tell you is an eternity. Anything can happen between now and then. One area Republicans do have an advantage with is in the all mighty dollar. According to a new New York Times report, Republicans maintain the higher ground when it comes to money in the bank:
The most recent round of campaign finance disclosures, filed Saturday, showed that Republican national party committees, candidates in key House and Senate races and their top unlimited-money outside groups, or “super PACs,” had $337 million on hand as of Sept. 30. Their Democratic counterparts had $285 million in the bank on the same date.
That’s not nothing. This money will definitely be spent like mad in these closing weeks. But, as we learned when Donald Trump bested the well-funded Hillary Clinton, money doesn’t necessarily win political races.
Why 2018 Matters for Trump Supporters
One thing is for sure. The stakes couldn’t be higher in this election. (RELATED: Here’s What’s at Stake for Republicans in the November Midterms.) Many Democrats are threatening impeachment if they take back Congress. Republican National Committee Spokesperson Kayleigh McEnany is sounding the impeachment alarm, warning that President Trump could lose his presidency should Democrats take power.
Like I said before, two weeks is an eternity in politics. With polls tightening, it’s still anyone’s game.
the blue wave is yet another fake news poll headline. the historical facts are that democrats do not come out to vote mid-term elections. they think someone else will do it for them. Republicans come out to vote for all elected races, historically speaking. GOP do not let rain or snow or a nice day, keep them for the sacred duty of voting. that is the constitutional republic way of having a say in how you will be governed, the democrat socialist wants to lose that very say, through the democrat programming. since this is a general election, voters do not have to vote their party, isn’t that what happened in 2016? secret ballots carry no tales.
Oh, I hope to see a “blue wave” alright, except a wave of their tears on election night if they get their useless asses kicked again. It’s always a joyful sight to see a liberal demonrat cry their hard corroded hearts out.
I will never understand what the democrat voters are voting for. I would guess, at this point, they are voting against the President, like the republicans voted against Hillary in 2016. Even that seems amazing as things have really improved for most of America. Race relations are still dismal but it will take a long time to undo what Obama did on that front.
Polls tightening? It was complete destruction in the House. The Dems won more seats in more than 100 years. They got more votes in 2018 than when the GOP “shellacked” Obama in 2010 (6.7 million). Not only was it a blue wave it historical. The GOP lost more than 300 seats in state legislatures; governorships and hundreds of seats at the local level.
The polls said it was a 9 point lead. That’s EXACTLY what turned out to happened. The Dems ended up winning by 9 full percentage points.
I guess losing is fake news for trump and his supporters. I guess the accuracy of the 9 points is fake news and I guess Mexico is building the wall, like trump said… wait, that is called a lie if trump supporters care enough to be ethical at all about what he said. “We will build the wall, Mexico will pay for it”. “ALL Americans will have affordable healthcare” Another LIE. “I have the biggest electoral college win in history”….another LIE. “I know nothing about the $130K paid to Stormy Daniels (until Cohen admitted it).
It’s like you all like to hold Dems to their lies but completely turn your back when trump or a republican lies. Then, it’s OK. No apologies. It does NOT work that way. trump is a liar. Hard stop. He bathes in racism and his supporters, eat it up and then whine when called out on it. Either own trump and all of his trash or you will keep losing.
Let’s be real; as trump said, he was on the ballot. In reality, only by proxy in 2018. In 2020, he really WILL be on the ballot. The midterms…was a warm-up. He attacks women, especially Black women (A. Phillips, A. Ryan, etc.) millennials, minorities, Puerto Ricans, the environment, you name it.
What did Dems run on Richard: Jobs. Healthcare. Middle-class equality. Education.
NO! Not everyone is “doing better” Richard. Farmers have lost their farms. trump’s tax welfare handouts, hit millions of Americans in blue states…including moderates, republicans and independents in blue states. Someone has to pay for all of that welfare Richard!!! Due to trump, my 401(k) lost it’s 2018 gains…so did everyone. The country is clearly way more divided NOW than when trump in office. I do not remember Nazi’s making world news for killing innocent people in Charlottesville, when Obama was in office. I don’t remember Nazi’s throwing parades for Obama, like they did for trump. trump supporters have killed innocent people from coast to coast…based on race and screaming “Get out of my country” in several a few ppl in some cases and multiple mass killings…..in others; all based on race and anti-Semitism.
Cynthia, with all due respect, if you want to be taken seriously (and I assume you do), you probably should learn to speak English. It’s called Democratic; not democrat. If you can’t speak or type, that’s fake news and any other policy or generic views will be disregarded. If you want to be disrespectful and divisive, congratulations…you succeeded.
Larry, David, the Dems won more seats than anytime since around 1914. Why should they have tears in their eyes? The polls clearly stated, all along, a blue wave was coming. trump got repudiated and shellacked by a 39 seat Democratic victory. The Dems won more seats in 2018 then the GOP won in EITHER of Obama’s midterms shellackings.
Federal man, a brown wave? I guess you are into that sort of thing. It’s disgusting that you as a republican would even think that and no republican commenter would push back on that. Really says a lot of about this room and the echo chamber.
Sylvia, REAL Americans voted in 2018. You are right. Less talk and there was action. Now, trump and his supporters can see what was supposed to happen in 2016, where Blacks stayed home b/c they hated HRC; women didn’t vote at record levels…and of course…millennials, stayed home.
Now…the bad news:
1) the 3 blue states trump won in 2016 that made him POTUS, flipped back and will be gerrymandered by Dems for 2020. He can’t win the WH without them even w/ Ohio and Florida.
2) For the 1st time in US history, a few states like PA and AZ, finally have MORE under 30 voters than over 65 white voters. We saw the result on election night of what that means.
3) Texas and now GA will soon flip. We saw that too one election night. GA will go first as a native of Texas, it’s going purple sooner than later. All Texas cities are now controlled by Democrats! The suburbs are going fast. Once they do, Texas’ 38 electoral college votes will be gone from the GOP and no math in the world will save the GOP.
4) the GOP continues to think they can win elections by purging people from their ranks….aka subtraction. We see how well that worked out on election night.
5) From 2016 to 2020, 5% of the GOP base, while the Democrats base will grow by roughly the same amount. Why? Younger people (under 30) tend to live longer, than older (white) people, which is the GOP’s base. What the GOP witnessed and what we’ve been saying all along, the GOP will lose because of a demographic shift.
6) the people who voted against trump, will be energized to vote again. Republicans voted AGAINST Hillary. So I don’t understand, why voting against someone is bad. They did it to Obama too. Now, they are saying it’s wrong or that that’s all Democrats stand for. Hillary was bad; trump is eons and light years worse. If you don’t see that, then you don’t see the butt beating that is coming in 2020. The only difference is trump really will be on the ballot then!!! That is gasoline on the fire for #MeToo Movement, Millennials, who are sick of trump’s judges; Blacks who are getting disenfranchised by trump’s voter suppression efforts. You all are deluding yourselves. People stayed home in 2016. Hillary will not be on the ballot for Democrats in 2020…forget that. Yes, I know what she said. If that is what you are hoping on …then you are guilty of hypocrisy of what Richard is whining about below…about voting against someone but what Richard gets WAY wrong, is Americans are NOT doing better AT ALL. Again, you guys are living in your own Fake Fox News bubble….with trump telling you stuff. You all got trashed on election night….do you believe it now? Not everyone voted to send a message to trump. People are hurting and trump is a complete disaster. And you all are blind and not listening to REAL Americans. You all got a shellacking worse than Obama’s. Obama did not get beat by 9 points in either of his midterms!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You all just did. Listen to us. We do not share the views of what I’m seeing below. This is unbelievable. You all are not living in reality. Keep living in reality and trashing the American voters….2020 will be worse.
The Democrats are dreamers and I do not believe there is a Blue Wave.. I hope they lose and lose big..
Blue wave my butt. The only wave the Democrats will experience is the ” brown wave ” running through their shorts when they fail to take either house. lol.
There never was a “blue wave”. It was simply a democrats ploy to deceive people into believing there was. Much like they (and their Mainstream Media sycophants) did during the 2016 Presidential election.
The creation of false expectations by the mass media that employs fake polls is to manufacture a sense of being cheated among the democrats rank and file to the end of inciting violence if and when they lose. It makes their hatred seem so much more real and justified
I have been saying for a while now thAt there is a” blue wave”. But not the one the democrats are talking about – it is the tsunami of former democrats leaving the party disgusted by the way they act and have no agenda whatsoever – Just LIEs and HYPOCRISY. You never hear the lame stream media talk about them – but – they are real – Power to the #WalkAway movement.
The Democratic Party is being run by basket cases. It’s important that every Republican-affiliated voter get out and vote!!
Let’s talk less and act more.
Leave the ranting to the dems and the rest of “sane” America go out to vote and remind your friends to vote.
Someone should tell the raving lunatics that Kavanaugh is visiting the zoo. Would be cute to watch them banging on the cages while the animals look on in amazement.