According to the betting odds from the political betting website PredictIt, Brett Kavanaugh’s odds of being confirmed on the Supreme Court surged following his defiant and emotional testimony yesterday and is now a near certainty. During Christine Blasey Ford’s testimony, Kavanaugh’s odds fell to a low of 40%, only to rebound and surge past 70% while testifying, as Kavanaugh refused to cower before the liberal questioning him (and at many occasions, drawing attention to the ridiculousness of it all).
Anyone willing to put their money where their mouths are realized that the Democrats attacks on Kavanaugh wouldn’t stick.
Here’s Kavanaugh’s chance of being confirmed over the past day, with the chart beginning in the middle of Ford’s testimony:
And by all indications, at least one Democrat will vote for Kavanaugh. According to PredictIt, there’s about a 2/3rds chance at least one Democrat for him.
When it comes to the specific number of votes, there’s only a 22% chance that Kavanaugh will receive 49 or fewer votes, implying a 78% chance of confirmation. The betting on the specific number of yes votes is as follows:
50 votes – 12%
51 votes – 22%
52 votes – 34%
53 votes – 11%
So, most betting is on 51 or 52 votes specifically.
There are 51 Republican Senators, and the one Democrat expected to vote for Kavanaugh is Joe Manchin, who represents a largely pro-Trump constituency.
https://twitter.com/elainaplott/status/1045478279220797440
The only Senators who could break Kavanaugh’s confirmation would be Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, or Jeff Flake. With a Manchin vote, all three would have to vote against Kavanaugh to derail his nomination, which is extremely unlikely.
And that’s not going to happen.
Flake now says he’ll vote to confirm Kavanaugh.
Flake says he will vote to confirm Kavanaugh https://t.co/55Jxt4UhNp pic.twitter.com/tJ3ZoS2k6k
— The Hill (@thehill) September 28, 2018
Susan Collins is reportedly undecided, though given the threats of violence and extortion from the Left in an attempt to intimidate her to vote “no,” perhaps she’ll vote “yes” to spite them. Collins has also questioned the timing of Dianne Feinstein bringing Christine Ford’s charges forward, meaning she could interpret them as political.
SUSAN COLLINS just told me she hasn’t made up her mind yet on Brett Kavanaugh for SCOTUS.
She declined to comment on the hearing yesterday.
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) September 28, 2018
There’s no word on Murkowski, but with Flake voting to confirm Kavanaugh, that’s irrelevant. Liberal activists are aggressively targeting Murkowski in an attempt to influence a “no” vote.
.@lisamurkowski: #BelieveSurvivors & block @realdonaldtrump's extreme #SCOTUS pick, his extreme agenda. Protect our rights! #StopKavanaugh CALL NOW: 844-766-2707 pic.twitter.com/s6yDIBYM6e
— MoveOn (@MoveOn) September 28, 2018
Either way, it won’t make a difference.
[totalpoll id=”148347″]
The Democrats tried to stop Kavanaugh by turning his confirmation into a circus – but everyone saw through the theatrics for what it was.
Vulnerable Dems in Red Trump States have been told that if there are enough Republican votes to get Kavanaugh in, they could vote “Yes” at that point. But if not, they have to toe the Liberal line. Look to these waffling Dem Senators to be voting last!
The Dems and Hollywood must watch CNN and believe it. They think people trust and believe them , Most of Americans see right pass them to the truth. This whole thing was set up by them. 100%. No doubt in my mind. No one but a bubble headed snowflake believes this story, they added Hollywood to try to justify, the witch hunt. It is disgraceful. And they say Trump is out of li ne. He can’t hold a candle to this bunch of lying sleaze bags. Sen Harris is the worse with her sour face. Like she is so above being a total lying backstabbing Politician. If I were her mother I would be so ashamed . They are not seeking the truth, they are seeking to get their own way to keep some kind of justice out of Washington. So they can keep being crooks. Shame on you all. I am saying this as someone out in the real world. NO one believes your story cut your losses and vote to put him on the bench. Election time for you is just around the corner. I would not Vote Dem no matter the reason after see you all in action. I wonder how many others are thinking the same way?
That pole doesn’t take in to account the dems…They are pure evil so if I were a betting man I would take those odds….and if he doesn’t get confirmed it’s not as much the dems fault as it is the gop, they really didn’t need POS COWARD flakes vote…. They should have had the vote the day after the testimony…..
When did innocent until proven guilty and the burden of proof rests with the accuser and there is Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus? Change that Law School to Feelings School.
“Moveon” and the left consider anybody who’s not a hardcore communist extreme , Kavanaugh isn’t extreme in the least he’s just a real Constitutional Judge .
As you can see below anybody that follows the Constitution is unacceptable to the left.
# 1 )
Chuck Schumer official quote:
” Time and time again we find progressive laws being struck down and it’s always the ones the Constitution is against .
“These right wing Judges don’t think for themselves they just do what the Constitution says and it’s time for that to end.”
#2)
Elizabeth Warren official quote:
“We need Judges to be advocates of progressive laws not people who will bow to the whims of the Constitution pitting it’s extremest values of freedom of speech and freedom of religion against our agenda”
#3)
Corey Booker official quote:
” We’re sick and tired of the Constitution sitting in the National Archives manipulating everything we do”
where did you get those quotes?