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Key Findings

  • The presence of all immigrants (naturalized citizens, legal residents, and illegal aliens) and their U.S.-born minor children will redistribute 26 seats in the House in 2020.
  • To put this number in perspective, changing the party of 21 members of the current Congress would flip the majority in the U.S. House.
  • Of the 26 seats that will be lost, 24 are from states that voted for Donald Trump in 2016. Of states that will gain House seats because of immigration, 19 seats will go to the solidly Democratic states of California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Illinois. Texas is the only solidly Republican state that gains, while Florida is a swing state.
  • Illegal immigrants and their U.S.-born minor children will redistribute five seats in 2020, with Ohio, Michigan, Alabama, Minnesota, and West Virginia each losing one seat in 2020 that they otherwise would have had. California and Texas will each have two additional seats, and New York will have one additional seat.
  • Illegal immigrants alone in the 2020 will redistribute three seats, with Ohio, Alabama, and Minnesota each having one fewer seat than they otherwise would have had, while California, New York, and Texas will have one additional seat.

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The Trump White House tried to insert a citizenship question on the 2020 census, which would have likely helped dampen from the massive power shift that could occur in the next election, but that idea was rejected by Chief Justice John Roberts.

States That Are Biggest Winners and Losers

The CIS analysis found that Democrat-heavy California would become “the biggest winner” in the political power shift “as it will gain 11 more congressional seats due to immigrants and their young children.”

The  CIS study  also found that “Ohio is the biggest loser from immigration, with three fewer seats due to the presence of immigrants and their U.S.-born children residing in other states. Michigan and Pennsylvania will have two fewer seats, while Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wisconsin will each lose one seat.”