Opinion

Democrats Manage To Take Lead And Move Some ‘Toss Up’ Races Into Solid Blue Column

With the November midterm election roughly a month away, political horse races across the country for both the House and the Senate will be a constant back and forth as the final days of campaigning kick in.

According to a Washington Examiner report, the non-partisan newsletter the Cook Report which analyzes upcoming political races has Democrats showing to have recently pulled into the lead in seven House races, while Republicans are pulling just three into the GOP column.

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The Way Things Are Looking Right Now

The Washington Examiner report stated that while shifts in those races went to the left or right column, the shifts may not have been all that dramatic, given the fact that both parties are within a tight margin in those specific races.

Democrats have however moved two races that the Cook Political Report had previously deemed toss ups into the solidly blue column, while Republicans had not pushed any of the toss up races into the solid red column. 

David Wasserman with the Cook Political Report said that “A pattern has begun to emerge: in surveys by both parties, House Democrats’ polling numbers are holding up surprisingly well in states with contentious statewide races driving turnout, Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania to name a few.”

Some of the races the Cook Political Report looked at were California’s 9th Congressional District, Florida’s 27th district, Illinois’ 6th district, Iowa’s 1st district, Michigan’s 8th district, Nevada’s 4th district, and Pennsylvania’s 7th district. Of those, Michigan and Nevada, which were considered toss ups. 

Republicans moved Florida’s 7th district, and both Texas’ 15th and 34th districts. The Cook Political Report has some 30 House races deemed toss ups. Of those seats, 20 are in Democrat hands, and 10 are held by Republicans.  


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The Issues Important To Voters

The issues that are important to Democrat voters vary sharply in comparison to what is important to Republican voters, with a new Monmouth University poll which certainly bears that out. 

The poll looked at twelve key issues facing American voters. The top three were inflation at 82%, crime at 72%, and elections and voting at 70%. Abortion clocked in at seventh on the list while climate change was ranked 10th.

It is not surprising that eight out of ten Republicans viewed inflation, crime, and immigration at the top of their list of concerns. Democrats put climate change, racial inequality, elections and voting, gun control, and abortion at the tops of their lists.

Director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, explained that “Democrats are all over the place when it comes to their key issues. This makes it difficult for the party to create a cohesive messaging strategy to motivate its base.”

Murray further pointed out that “Republicans, on the other hand, just have to hammer away at rising prices and ‘the wolf is at the door’ to get their voters riled up.”


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Democrats In Trouble With Latinos

Democrats are in serious jeopardy with a very large traditionally Democrat voting bloc, that of Latinos. The shift from Democrat to Republican among Latinos is dramatic. 

An NBC News/Telemundo poll from 2012 showed that hispanics favored Democrat control of the House by nine points. Today, that number has drastically shifted by a whopping 56 points.

It is not hard to figure out why that shift has occurred though. Democrats have always assumed that hispanics and Latinos were single-issue voters, and that issue single-issue was immigration. The Political Insider’s Remso Martinez recently pointed out that Latinos do not support the Democrat’s radical abortion on demand policies that would allow abortion even up until birth. Additionally, other issues that are turning away surround “the LGBTQ+ movement and their attempt to completely distort traditional family values.”

Perhaps the Democrat party’s biggest fear is that of a record number of Republican hispanic female congressional candidates. Rep. Mayra Flores made history in June in a special election that flipped Texas 34th district to the GOP, a seat Democrats had held for 100 years.

GOP congressional candidate Monica De La Cruz, who is running against Democrat Michelle Vallejo in Texas summed it up for Democrats saying, “Hispanic culture really aligns with pro-life, pro God, and pro country. Those are the values of the Republican party. Democrats have just simply gone too far to the left and towards socialism.”

The FiveThirtyEight blog predicts a 69% chance Republicans will take control of the House, but forecasts Democrats as keeping control of the Senate.

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Becky Noble

Becky Noble, a political blogger and writer for over 10 years, lives by the motto, “Being normal is not necessarily a virtue. It rather denotes a lack of courage.” Becky holds a degree in journalism from Regent University.

View Comments

  • This Democratic troll writer needs to be removed,kicked down a Flight of Stairs, and sent back to school, They throw out this Monmouth Poll ( Which is from 2012 ) and Ignore, RealClear Politics , Rasmussen, other Polls that show exactly the opposite happening around the country, with in most of those races Republicans leading by Double digits.

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