The midterms are right around the corner, and every poll that keeps coming in shows the Democrats’ chances of taking back the Senate are dwindling.
In fact, the odds are so stacked against them, that to take back the Senate, Democrats would need to successfully defend 10 seats that are in States that voted for Donald Trump, and pick up two additional seats of their own. The betting website PredictIt currently puts the odds of Republicans holding 49 or fewer Senate seats after the midterms at only 24 percent.
The latest poll from Axios/SurveyMonkey shows that in those 10 key States, Democrats are expected to lose three seats, while picking up two, for a net loss of a seat in November. The Democrats expected to lose their seats are North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp, Florida’s Bill Nelson, and Indiana’s Joe Donnelly. Democrats are expected to pick up seats in Arizona and Nevada.
The House of Representatives is more of a shakeup. According to Bloomberg, Democrats turned out more voters overall than Republicans in 14 of the most competitive congressional districts that have had primaries so far. The advantage isn’t anything special, though. Unofficial vote totals from the still-unfinished primary season show Democrats received about 806,000 votes in those 14 districts, while Republicans won about 727,000, for a 52.6%/47.3% DEM/GOP lead.
In total, there are 24 districts that the nonpartisan Cook Political Report says are tossups in November’s election (which includes some of the 14 aforementioned districts). For Democrats to retake the House, they’ll need to gain at least 23 seats.
While Democrats lead in early turnout, Republicans lead in financial backing (itself a major hint at enthusiasm, given that most money fund-raised has been from small individual donations). The Republican National Committee has continued to fund-raise more than double what the Democratic National Committee has this year and manage those funds better. The RNC has nearly $50 million in cash in their war chest and no debt. The DNC has less than $10 million, and over $2 million in debt. (RELATED: RNC Smashes $200 Million Fundraising Record in May – Dems Left in Dust).
It’s not uncommon for the opposing party to gain seats during midterms. In fact, that seems to be the rule. In 18 of the past 20 midterms, the President’s Party lost seats, on average. But this time Republicans certainly won’t be losing any seats in the Senate, and if they do in the House, it’s still unclear whether it would be enough to tilt the balance of power.
Given that President Trump’s popularity is on the rise, coupled with a strong economy, Republicans are in a strong position to maintain control of the Senate in November, ensuring that the President’s legacy remains intact.