Why Russia Will Ultimately Win in Ukraine

Despite journalists and America’s government insisting that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine, it isn’t. Indeed, Russia is winning and inevitably will emerge as the victor. I served eight years in the U.S. Army Reserve as an intelligence analyst, and here’s why all the hype is nothing more than disinformation.

Each day journalists and government officials collude to saturate America with propaganda portraying the war in Ukraine as one where Ukraine is handing Russia one defeat after another. Only occasionally will the truth slip out. The reasons for this are quite simple.

First, it keeps their fanatical base, Democratic voters, happy. It’s also an attempt to generate public support in general for America’s involvement in the war—even as America has no national security reason to be involved in it (America should focus on its own borders instead) and even as Congress has never declared war or authorized the use of military force.

RELATED: WATCH: Kelley Vlahos Warns America’s Focus on Ukraine Makes it Susceptible to War With China

There Is No Good Intel on the War

The truth, of course, is quite the opposite of what the ruling class wants everyone to believe. And what is the truth? It’s hard to say at the micro level but on the macro level it’s that Russia is winning and that it will eventually emerge as the winner.

The major reason it’s so difficult—impossible, actually—to say what’s happening on the micro level (the tactical and operational levels) is because of the disinformation that saturates the battlefield. And the disinformation—the intentional lies—comes from everyone who is invested in the wars.

For instance, Russian officials, their allies, and their media want to present the take on it that best favors their side. This isn’t to say everything from Russian officials and media is disinformation, but some of it is. That’s the way war works. They want to make their side look good and the enemy look bad.

Ditto for the American government-journalist uniparty. Then there are all the so-called independent bloggers, influencers, and so forth. They are all selling something (mostly themselves) and so if their audience wants to hear that Ukraine is winning, that’s what they’ll tell them. If their audience wants to hear that Russia is winning, that’s what they’ll tell them.

Simply put, when something is high-profile—popular, in a sense—everybody wants to be in on it to benefit themselves, and there are a lot of people out there who are willing to lie for a variety of reasons. So it’s disinformation from America’s ruling class, from Ukraine, from Russia, and even from independent sources that are anything but independent.

Admittedly, this isn’t very surprising. Any time any war or national security issue becomes high-profile the disinformation flows like a river bursting free from a broken dam. At the height of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, there was no shortage of intelligence. And while much of it was undoubtedly good, much of it was undoubtedly disinformation too. After all, the wars were the focus of global attention and competing factions wanted to manipulate them for their own purposes.

On the flip side of things, I contributed to multiple intelligence assessments on target areas that, at the time, were considered to be boring; no one cared about them. Intelligence on them was often hard to come by. But what we did get apparently was good, because events that have occurred since then have shown that our assessments were generally correct.

In short, in order to get solid intelligence on a war or national security issue, don’t wait until people are paying attention to it. Collect the intel when no one cares and then it’ll be quality intel from which it’s possible to generate high-confidence assessments.

But if it’s nothing but disinformation regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, then how is it possible to assess the macro level—that Russia is winning and will win? It’s possible because Russia can fail at a lot and still win. And it’s also possible to make the assessment because America is backing Ukraine, and America has proven that it no longer is capable of winning wars.

RELATED: White House Denies Explosive Report That the US Sabotaged Nord Stream 2

Russia Will Win Because America Can’t

A Russian victory is Ukraine is defined as Russia capturing, holding, and annexing any part of Ukraine. Any nation that can take sovereign territory from another has objectively won. And even now it appears that that has already happened in Ukraine. Russia appears to have permanently annexed parts of eastern Ukraine. It very well could annex more.

On top of this, Russia will capture and exploit whatever American material they capture on the battlefield or through the black market. Kind of like how they very well could (despite official statements) exploit all that material that America left behind in Afghanistan. Captured and exploited material will be a major intelligence victory for Russia and it will have consequences for America for years to come.

All in all, this will be yet another lost war for America. America generally lost in Iraq. (Although it prevented Saddam Hussein from ever reviving his WMD program, it failed to prevent hostile actors such as Muqtada al-Sadr from having influence on the nation.) It also lost in Afghanistan where the Taliban now rule again. (Terrorist organizations have safe haven there and the Chinese are making inroads.) And it lost in Georgia as well. (Russia launched a war in Georgia in 2008 and seized and controls that territory to this day.) America has lost every war of the 21st century and so it’s easy to assess that the side it’s backing in the Russia-Ukraine war will lose too.

RELATED: Report: US Military Has Admitted to Shooting Down ‘High Altitude Flying Object’ Out of an ‘Abundance of Caution’ Over Alaska

Ruling Class Won’t Acknowledge Its Defeat

This isn’t to say that the American ruling class will acknowledge losing. But that’s because it’s incapable of understanding what victory is. It views victory as defeat, and vice versa. Russia may indeed sustain massive losses of personnel, weapons, and equipment, but, again, if it captures and annexes portions of Ukraine then it will have won. The American ruling class—military and civilian leaders—seems to believe that an ugly win isn’t a win. But that, of course, isn’t true. An ugly win is still a win.

So regardless of what people wish would happen with the Russia-Ukraine war, the outcome of it will be that Russia wins and Ukraine loses. And Ukraine loses because it is dependent upon America, which cannot win a war.

Ignore the disinformation coming out of the Russia-Ukraine war and focus on this key fact. After that, the only question left is what exactly Russia’s victory will look like.

Now is the time to support and share the sources you trust.
The Political Insider ranks #3 on Feedspot’s “100 Best Political Blogs and Websites.”

Paul Hair

View Comments

  • OMG, there are respondents who are disagreeing with the writer on this site. Well, I suppose anything can happen.

    If you are siding with Vladimir Putin, then you need to ask yourself why, when a few decades ago you were convinced that Russia was "The Axis of Evil." Putin is a megalomaniac who would love to start World War III, and who is courting China to be his partner. If you want to live in that world, then go ahead and back Putin. If you really believe in "freedom," then you need to help Ukraine beat back the Russian bully. Don't leave Ukraine alone to fight the war that the rest of us will have to fight sooner or later.

    Land grabbers start with the "easy pickings" first, but they then keep going.

  • "So regardless of what people wish would happen with the Russia-Ukraine war, the outcome of it will be that Russia wins and Ukraine loses. And Ukraine loses because it is dependent upon America, which cannot win a war."
    Ukraine does not need America to fight a war for
    them. They have demonstrated that they can do it quite well.
    All they need is the weapons to liberate their territory presently occupied by Russia.
    "And it [America] lost in Georgia as well.
    (Russia launched a war in Georgia in 2008 and seized and controls that territory to this day.)"
    How can America lose a war, if it was not involved in it?

  • USA does NOT take part in this war. It supplies the arms. Brave Ukrainians die for their freedom and to eliminate the Russia-cancer in Europe. The article is written by Russian paid asset or ignorant person.

  • From the closing text in this article I gather that Ukraine will loose and Russia will win the war.
    Because America is involved and had a reputation of being a loser when it comes to war.
    Wow! What a conclusion!

  • Paul is barking up the wrong tree. He doesn't know or understand Ukrainian history or people. He's reduced his failed conjecture only through the lens of Globalist-Leftist US--Democrat-Party incompetance and compromised morality. . There's NO BASIS for his judgment of the strength of the Russian leadership and military,... nor for his belief in the weakness of the Ukrainian leadership and military strength and morale. In other words he believes that Ukraine and it's people do not factor in at all in tjhe outcome of this war??
    He could not be MORE MISTAKEN! He has also failed to consider the 39 OTHER NATIONS giving military, financial, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
    OR that Russias only allies,... Iran, North Korea,..and CCP are just as corrupt and tyrannical as the Kremlin.
    In other words, Paul seems to be parroting almost verbatim the viewpoint (propaganda) of Russian State Media! And just like Russian State Media, Paul is not considering that there are MANY MAGA REPUBLICANS THAT SUPPORT UKRAINE'S FIGHT AGAINST THE RUSSIAN INVADER! That goes for me,, and almot all of my Conservative Christian family and friends. In spite of the very disappointing Conservatie Media heads that are spewing RTV (Putin-Kremlin-Moscow propaganda). And like myself, there are many Conservatives with wives, dear ones and family in Ikraine. And so we have many personal connections, and various sources other than MSM.

  • "A Russian victory is (in?) Ukraine is defined as Russia capturing, holding, and annexing any part of Ukraine. Any nation that can take sovereign territory from another has objectively won."

    Mr. Hair,

    According to your view, Hitler won the war because he captured and held for almost 6 years just about whole Europe and a huge portion of the Soviet Union.

  • The same media that said the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian Disinformation is now telling us that Russia is losing against a postage stamp country propped up by NATO hardware. Just keep that in mind when cheering on the Ukraine.

    The only way the Ukraine "wins" is if the proxy war becomes a hot war and NATO piles on Russia with a lot more than sanctions. Ready to lose blood and treasure so Europe's laundromat can stay a nation? Not me.

  • With the disintegration of the Soviet Union the US's military-industrial triad saw its reason for existence collapse.  The peace dividend deprived them of . How were they going to continue to bleed the economies of the US and the world of billions if they no  longer  had to be stopped and the holes in their budgets plugged. They needed a new enemy.  They had to quickly invent one. The War on Drugs was their first, but it just didn’t yield the bonanza that had been lost when trillions were spent to oppose the Soviet Union. Desperately, they sough another conflict so they created one out of the remnants of their former Afghanistan allies, propped them up,and like magic 9/11 occurred, and once again the trillions could be looted, and the American public fell for it. They continued by inventing  nonexistent weapons of mass destruction to justify the invasion of their former ally Iraq. After years of looting trillions from this effort they left Iraq and now have found another bonanza which is to fight Russia in a proxy war over Ukraine. Unfortunately, Russia is not a weak or compliant or fake foe, and , most importantly, millions of people in the West now recognize the confidence game and are rising up to oppose this war. As the author explains here, the US does not fight wars to win them, they fight them to support our huge complex. That of thousands die is of no conseqhence to the ghouls who run our government. Theirdeaths are necessary to support their greed, that'sall they care about.

    • You forgot one salient fact,... UKRAINE is fighting this war,.. NOT the USA.. We are just one of many nations supplying aid to Ukraine---- and we'er not doing enough. It's the Ukrainian people--mitlitary and civilians,. who are fighting and dying for their FREEDOM. I wonder if you even have a clue about what that means? You evidently have no familiarity with Ukraine,.. it's history, culture, and people? And how fiercely they desire independence? Or the fact that the USA & Britain agreed to protect their border Sovereignty from Russian Invasion in exchange for giving up their 3rd-in-the-world ranked Nuclear Arsenal to Russia (along with bombers, fighters, and other military arsenal) in the 1994 Budapest Agreement!

  • The true support base rests w/ the Russian People's support of the war; one should first seek the opinion of the Russian mothers, of their dying children. IMHO

    • There are a lot more Russian mothers than Ukrainian mothers. Not sure on exact numbers but I can say 1000 casualties on each side means a much higher percentage of angry Ukrainian mothers to Russian mothers. Does the Ukranian government not have to care what it's mother's think? I thought they were the freedom loving democracy in this fight

Recent Posts

LinkedIn Censors GOP Presidential Candidate Vivek Ramaswamy for Commenting on Biden’s Ties to China

GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is everywhere spreading his message of anti-woke far and wide,…

3 days ago

Oakland Teachers Still Strike Despite Up to $113,000 in Base Salary

By Adam Andrzejewski for RealClearInvestigations Teachers in the Oakland Unified School District began their third…

3 days ago

Biden CBP Denies Government is Providing Financial Support to Illegal Immigrants, Gets Immediately Slapped With Fact Checks

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) denied that the federal government provides help or…

3 days ago

Marco Rubio: No Commercial Real Estate Bailouts

By Sen. Marco Rubio for RealClearPolitics In the mid-2000s, small-town Minnesota resident Charles Marohn saw an upscale…

4 days ago

WATCH: An Exasperated Jake Tapper Delivers ‘Horrible’ News For Biden – 66% of Americans Think His Reelection Would Be ‘Disaster’ or ‘Setback’ to America

Jake Tapper was nearly beside himself as he delivered "horrible" polling numbers for President Biden…

4 days ago

House Republicans Vote to Overturn Biden’s Student Loan Bailout

By Casey Harper (The Center Square) House Republicans voted 218-203 Wednesday to overturn President Joe…

4 days ago