Republicans are heading into a solid midterm election season if current polls hold.
A new Politico/Morning Consult poll found that, for what seems like the first time in ages, a generic Republican is polling above a generic Democrat. According to the poll, 39 percent of registered voters say they would support the Republican candidate for Congress in their district, while 38 percent would back the Democrat candidate. The remaining 23 percent were undecided.
Trump job approval up to 47 percent, the best I can recall in any non-Ras poll since his inauguration.
Reminder that the more media covers uniquely Trumpian things (i.e. WH chaos), the better Rs seem to do.
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) February 14, 2018
The report continues:
Voters are split almost evenly along party lines. Democratic voters break for their party, 85 percent to 5 percent, while Republicans similarly favor the GOP, 84 percent to 8 percent. Among independent voters, 26 percent would vote for the Democrat, 25 percent for the Republican and nearly half, 49 percent, are undecided.
The GOP’s 1-point advantage comes after three months of tracking in which Democrats maintained a lead ranging between 2 and 10 points on the generic ballot. That has been generally smaller than the party’s lead in other public surveys: The most recent RealClearPolitics average shows Democrats ahead by 7 points on the generic ballot, though that’s down from a high of 13 points late last year.
When it comes to Trump, the Politico/Consult poll finds him finally breaking even in the polls, with 47 percent approving and another 47 percent disapproving.
Trump polls as you’d expect among Republicans and Democrats individually – with most Republicans approving, and nearly all Democrats disapproving. Trump does remain underwater with independents, 39 percent approve and 49 percent disapprove.
Regardless, Trump’s approval isn’t as relevant to how the mid-term elections will turn out, compared to how Republicans as a whole poll. On the issues, congressional Republicans also have a 9-point advantage on handling the economy, a 6-point lead on dealing with immigration, and a 19-point lead on handling national security.
The only policy issue where Democrats led was on health care, where their lead has dwindled down to only 4 points.
Internal polling from the liberal advocacy group Priorities USA is corresponding with these results, that trends are favoring Republicans. Democrats, Priorities USA warned, must “not allow themselves to be sidetracked and distracted by Trump’s latest tweets.”
Unfortunately for them, I doubt they’ll be able to resist.
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