Last Politico/Morning Consult Poll Before Midterm Elections Gives Democrats Only Slight Lead

November 5, 2018

The last generic ballot poll to be released before the midterm elections shows an increasingly tight contest between congressional Republican and Democrats, giving the party of Nancy Pelosi only a smidgen of a lead heading into election day.

Any election observer will tell you that the only poll that actually matters is the ballot box count after the polls are closed. I agree with that sentiment, as I have no idea how tomorrow’s hundreds of elections will turn out. However, opinion polls are still a good way of gauging the country’s overall mood, and right now, things don’t look great for Democrats.

For months now, we’ve been inundated with talk of an impending “blue wave” set to swallow Congress. Democrats have been leading in most generic ballot polls. But Republicans have been steadily cutting into their lead. (RELATED: New NBC/WSJ Poll Shows Slight Gains for Republicans Ahead of Midterms.)

Now, with less than 24 hours before voters go to the polls, the latest generic ballot poll shows that Democrats have completely lost their advantage heading into election day. Politico reports:

The final POLITICO/Morning Consult poll prior to the midterm elections shows Republicans cutting into Democrats’ lead on the generic congressional ballot.

According to the poll, 43 percent of registered voters would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district — only slightly more than the 40 percent who would vote for the Republican candidate. Eighteen percent of registered voters are undecided.

The Democrats’ ineptness to maintain their generic ballot advantage cannot be emphasized enough. Any fair assessment of their electoral strategy would hold that they did a pitiful job taking advantage of the enthusiasm gap they once enjoyed.

Pollsters are beginning to shy away from the “blue wave” narrative, with data doyen Nate Silver even suggesting it’s a total tossup, albeit slightly more in Democrats’ favor:

Again, it should be pointed out that the only poll that still matters is the ballot returns on election day. The battle isn’t over and it won’t be settled until tomorrow night.

For now, it appears Republicans have a fighting chance at keeping both houses of Congress.

By Jim E

Jim E. is a true political insider, with experience working both in Washington and outside in real America. Jim... More about Jim E

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