Democrats have been convinced they’ll take back the House and Senate in a proverbial “blue wave” this fall, but the Cook Political Report has bad news: four House races have shifted in favor of the GOP, including two high-stakes primaries in California. (RELATED: Generic Republicans Polling Above Democrats for 2018 Midterms).
BREAKING: For the first time in a long while, Cook Political Report moves 4 races — all in the GOP’s direction. All about problematic primaries for Dems. https://t.co/FWJPPTrtkF
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) May 22, 2018
Republican Reps. Ed Royce (CA-39) and Darrell Issa (CA-49) are both retiring from congressional districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. However, while this is historically good news for the rival party, California’s top-two primary could prove problematic for Democrats. Republican candidates outnumber Democrats in both races, with seven Republicans and six Democrats vying for a spot on the June 5th ballot in the 39th CD, and eight Republicans and four Democrats running in the 49th CD.
Korean-born GOP former Assemblywoman Young Kim is expected to finish first in the 39th, while the second runoff spot is a toss-up between Democrats Gil Cisneros and Andy Thorburn, and GOP former state Sen. Bob Huff and Orange County Supervisor Shawn Nelson.
Over in the 49th, GOP state Assemblyman Rocky Chavez and Democrat retired Marine colonel Doug Applegate would finish first and second, respectively, if the primary were held today. However, they will both be outspent by other candidates come June.
Clearly, these two districts will not be as easy a win for Democrats as they were once expected to be, and the Cook Political Report has moved both races from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up.”
But where California has turned murky for Democrats, Nebraska and South Carolina have turned into absolute disasters.
In Nebraska’s 2nd CD, the victory of far-left candidate Kara Eastman over DCCC-backed former Rep. Brad Ashford in the Democratic primary has shifted the race heavily in favor of Republican incumbent Rep. Don Bacon. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics made the call immediately after Eastman’s win.
Crystal Ball House Ratings change: Rep. Don Bacon (R, NE-2) goes from Toss-up to Leans R after Kara Eastman’s (D) primary win over former Rep. Brad Ashford. Will have more on this in tomorrow’s Crystal Ball, but basically the NRCC got what it wanted and the DCCC didn’t
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) May 16, 2018
Now, the Cook Political Report has made the same determination, shifting the race from “toss up” to “lean Republican.”
Meanwhile, in South Carolina, Republican Ralph Norman is all but guaranteed a win in the 5th CD after unearthed court records revealed that Democrat candidate Archie Parnell physically assaulted his ex-wife in the 1970s. Despite liberal insistence that the Democrat Party is the Women’s Party, Parnell has refused to drop out of the race in light of the news. The Cook Political Report subsequently changed their prediction from “leans Republican” to “solid Republican.”
However, all this is not to say that the GOP doesn’t still have a fight on their hands – they absolutely do. Liberals are disproportionately angry and motivated to turn out and vote, and unless they’re dumb enough to make the same mistake twice they absolutely will. But on the flip side of that same coin, Republicans are just as motivated to keep their party in power, particularly given all the “fake news” being thrown around. So yes, this fall will be a fight – but the expected blue wave might be more of a blue trickle.
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