Why Russia Will Ultimately Win in Ukraine

Ukrainian serviceman fires towed artillery against Russian troops.
"Ukraine war: artillery offensive led by anti-tank missile system in Donetsk" (2023), The Telegraph YouTube

Despite journalists and America’s government insisting that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine, it isn’t. Indeed, Russia is winning and inevitably will emerge as the victor. I served eight years in the U.S. Army Reserve as an intelligence analyst, and here’s why all the hype is nothing more than disinformation.

Each day journalists and government officials collude to saturate America with propaganda portraying the war in Ukraine as one where Ukraine is handing Russia one defeat after another. Only occasionally will the truth slip out. The reasons for this are quite simple.

First, it keeps their fanatical base, Democratic voters, happy. It’s also an attempt to generate public support in general for America’s involvement in the war—even as America has no national security reason to be involved in it (America should focus on its own borders instead) and even as Congress has never declared war or authorized the use of military force.

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There Is No Good Intel on the War

The truth, of course, is quite the opposite of what the ruling class wants everyone to believe. And what is the truth? It’s hard to say at the micro level but on the macro level it’s that Russia is winning and that it will eventually emerge as the winner.

The major reason it’s so difficult—impossible, actually—to say what’s happening on the micro level (the tactical and operational levels) is because of the disinformation that saturates the battlefield. And the disinformation—the intentional lies—comes from everyone who is invested in the wars.

For instance, Russian officials, their allies, and their media want to present the take on it that best favors their side. This isn’t to say everything from Russian officials and media is disinformation, but some of it is. That’s the way war works. They want to make their side look good and the enemy look bad.

Ditto for the American government-journalist uniparty. Then there are all the so-called independent bloggers, influencers, and so forth. They are all selling something (mostly themselves) and so if their audience wants to hear that Ukraine is winning, that’s what they’ll tell them. If their audience wants to hear that Russia is winning, that’s what they’ll tell them.

Simply put, when something is high-profile—popular, in a sense—everybody wants to be in on it to benefit themselves, and there are a lot of people out there who are willing to lie for a variety of reasons. So it’s disinformation from America’s ruling class, from Ukraine, from Russia, and even from independent sources that are anything but independent.

Admittedly, this isn’t very surprising. Any time any war or national security issue becomes high-profile the disinformation flows like a river bursting free from a broken dam. At the height of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, there was no shortage of intelligence. And while much of it was undoubtedly good, much of it was undoubtedly disinformation too. After all, the wars were the focus of global attention and competing factions wanted to manipulate them for their own purposes.

On the flip side of things, I contributed to multiple intelligence assessments on target areas that, at the time, were considered to be boring; no one cared about them. Intelligence on them was often hard to come by. But what we did get apparently was good, because events that have occurred since then have shown that our assessments were generally correct.

In short, in order to get solid intelligence on a war or national security issue, don’t wait until people are paying attention to it. Collect the intel when no one cares and then it’ll be quality intel from which it’s possible to generate high-confidence assessments.

But if it’s nothing but disinformation regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, then how is it possible to assess the macro level—that Russia is winning and will win? It’s possible because Russia can fail at a lot and still win. And it’s also possible to make the assessment because America is backing Ukraine, and America has proven that it no longer is capable of winning wars.

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Russia Will Win Because America Can’t

A Russian victory is Ukraine is defined as Russia capturing, holding, and annexing any part of Ukraine. Any nation that can take sovereign territory from another has objectively won. And even now it appears that that has already happened in Ukraine. Russia appears to have permanently annexed parts of eastern Ukraine. It very well could annex more.

On top of this, Russia will capture and exploit whatever American material they capture on the battlefield or through the black market. Kind of like how they very well could (despite official statements) exploit all that material that America left behind in Afghanistan. Captured and exploited material will be a major intelligence victory for Russia and it will have consequences for America for years to come.

All in all, this will be yet another lost war for America. America generally lost in Iraq. (Although it prevented Saddam Hussein from ever reviving his WMD program, it failed to prevent hostile actors such as Muqtada al-Sadr from having influence on the nation.) It also lost in Afghanistan where the Taliban now rule again. (Terrorist organizations have safe haven there and the Chinese are making inroads.) And it lost in Georgia as well. (Russia launched a war in Georgia in 2008 and seized and controls that territory to this day.) America has lost every war of the 21st century and so it’s easy to assess that the side it’s backing in the Russia-Ukraine war will lose too.

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Ruling Class Won’t Acknowledge Its Defeat

This isn’t to say that the American ruling class will acknowledge losing. But that’s because it’s incapable of understanding what victory is. It views victory as defeat, and vice versa. Russia may indeed sustain massive losses of personnel, weapons, and equipment, but, again, if it captures and annexes portions of Ukraine then it will have won. The American ruling class—military and civilian leaders—seems to believe that an ugly win isn’t a win. But that, of course, isn’t true. An ugly win is still a win.

So regardless of what people wish would happen with the Russia-Ukraine war, the outcome of it will be that Russia wins and Ukraine loses. And Ukraine loses because it is dependent upon America, which cannot win a war.

Ignore the disinformation coming out of the Russia-Ukraine war and focus on this key fact. After that, the only question left is what exactly Russia’s victory will look like.

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