Economists Warn Likelihood of US Recession Has Increased Since the Election – Now 70%

Economists indicate there is a 70% chance the American economy sinks into a recession next year, up from the same odds indicated in a similar survey in November.
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Economists predict there is a 70% chance the American economy will sink into a recession next year, up from the same odds indicated in a similar survey in November.

The latest Bloomberg monthly survey, conducted last week, had 38 expert respondents with a vast majority suggesting that worse times for the economy lie ahead.

The percentage is up 5 points from November when the midterm elections were held, and roughly 10 points from October.

It also represents a number more than twice what had been predicted back in June.

During that summer timeframe, the economy contracted for a second straight quarter, meeting a widely accepted rule of thumb for the definition of a recession.

RELATED: ‘Serious Stuff’: JPMorgan Chief Jamie Dimon Warns Inflation, QE, Could Bring Down Economy

Economists Predict a Recession

The warning from top economists comes just a few short months after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen claimed the United States economy was in a “new phase” of “recovery.”

“We’ve entered a new phase in our recovery focused on achieving steady, stable growth without sacrificing the gains of the last 18 months,” she said.

“We know there are challenges ahead of us. Growth is slowing globally. Inflation remains unacceptably high, and it’s this administration’s top priority to bring it down.”

The news also comes after President Biden took a victory lap on last month’s inflation numbers which soared by 7.1 percent compared to last year, remaining excessively high.

“In a world where inflation is rising in double digits in many major economies around the world, inflation is coming down in America,” Biden said.

He added, “Things are getting better, headed in the right direction.”

Economists disagree.

RELATED: Biden Says It’s ‘No Surprise’ After Negative GDP Report For Two Straight Quarters, Signaling Recession

Experts Have Been Warning For Some Time

Top financial leaders and economists have been warning about a recession and dire times ahead for some time.

Nouriel Roubini, the famed economist whose dire predictions of the 2008 financial crash ultimately came true, warned in July that the U.S. economy was about to get hit with a “severe” recession.

“There are many reasons why we are going to have a severe recession and a severe debt and financial crisis,” Roubini said. “The idea that this is going to be short and shallow is totally delusional.”

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, cautioned just last month that the U.S. economy is headed toward serious trouble in the coming months.

“These are very, very serious things which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world — I mean, Europe is already in recession — and they’re likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now,” the Wall Street titan warned.

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And perception, as they say, is everything. 

93 percent of Americans say they have been personally impacted by high inflation and more than half of Americans believe the country is already in a recession.

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Rusty Weiss has been covering politics for over 15 years. His writings have appeared in the Daily Caller, Fox... More about Rusty Weiss

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