It’s going to be an uphill battle for Democrats going into the midterms, even in a best-case scenario.
If every Democrat’s state and district election results in the coming midterms were to get an 8 point swing in their favor from how that district voted in the 2016 presidential election, Democrats would gain 44 seats in the House (only 23 are needed for control), but also a loss of four Senate seats. And that’s not the scenario that’s presented. Democrats are defending 26 Senate seats, five of which are in states that voted for Trump by 19 points or more. Republicans are defending 9 seats, and all but one are in States that Trump won. They face slightly better in the House, with Democrats defending 25 seats in districts that Hillary won, and 13 where Trump won.
And aside from the political demographics of certain districts, Democrats have to deal with the fact that geography is not in their favor.
As one pollster writing for the New York Times noted, “Whereas most House seats have roughly the same number of constituents, a majority of the Senate now represents just 18 percent of the nation’s population. And this fall, the Senate will come down to seats that are much whiter, more rural and pro-Trump than the nation as a whole. In effect, geography could again be Mr. Trump’s greatest protector: After all, the Senate — not the House — would have the final say on any impeachment proceedings.”
In effect, geography is making it as if there are two different elections playing out at once. The average competitive Senate race is playing out in areas where Trump won 56% of the popular vote in 2016, while the average competitive House district voted 49% for Trump.
In some of those Blue districts that Republicans are defending, Democrat voter registration is dropping. Florida is one such state, has seen a 2% drop in their number of registered Democrats since 2016, most of which occurred after February of this year. Other signs that favor Republicans include President Trump’s approval rating people higher than Obama’s at this stage in his presidency, and the RNC’s spectacular fundraising figures (which are doubling the DNC’s).
