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The Numbers Are In, And They’re Looking Good For Kavanaugh

Kevin Daley on July 23, 2018

New public opinion polling shows strong majorities of voters favor the confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court in red states represented by Democratic senators standing for reelection in November.

The poll also indicates that opposition to Kavanaugh is negligible in the opening stages of the confirmation process.

The survey polled voters in Alabama, Indiana, North Dakota, and West Virginia, four states President Donald Trump carried comfortably in the 2016 presidential election. Incumbent Democratic senators are running for reelection this November in Indiana, North Dakota, and West Virginia, while Alabama Democratic Sen. Doug Jones faces voters again in 2020.

The polls show voters favor Kavanaugh’s confirmation by a wide margin: 54 percent of Alabama voters, 52 percent of Indiana voters, 60 percent of North Dakota voters, and 55 percent of West Virginia voters answered affirmatively when asked if the judge should be confirmed to the high court. Results were similar among registered independents across all four states.

Perhaps more striking is the shallow opposition to Kavanaugh — just 30 percent of Alabama voters, 34 percent of Indiana voters, 22 percent of North Dakota voters, and 30 percent of West Virginia voters said the judge should not be confirmed.

Such scattered resistance does not augur well for liberal political groups who are encouraging vulnerable Senate Democrats to hold fast and oppose Kavanaugh. The absence of meaningful home state support gives embattled incumbents little reason to buck the electorate on a marquee issue just weeks before an election.

The Daily Beast reported on July 18 that early efforts to mobilize progressive voters and resources against Kavanaugh are faltering — at least in the early stages of the nomination battle.

North Star Opinion Research conducted the survey, which polled 600 registered voters in Alabama, Indiana, and West Virginia, and 500 registered voters in North Dakota. The poll was taken in mid-July.

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