Despite “generic Democrats” leading “generic Republicans” in the generic ballot this entire election cycle, that’s finally reversed in the eleventh hour. While the generic ballots have always been close in key congressional tossup districts, Republicans now lead Democrats overall – and elections are tomorrow.
According to Rasmussen Reports: “The final Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot before Election Day shows Republicans edging ahead by one point.” However, since the poll has a +/- 2 point margin of error, the two are essentially tied. More specifically, “46% would choose the Republican candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-five percent (45%) would vote for the Democrat. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided.”
Just one week ago, Democrats led 47% to 44%. Republicans also have a lead with independents.
The generic ballot as an indicator in past elections
Taking the lead in the generic ballot is a good omen for Republicans going into tomorrow’s midterms. During the 2014 midterms (which resulted in the largest Republican majority in nearly a century, giving them control with 54 seats in the Senate, 247 in the House, 31 governorships, and 68 state legislative chambers), Republicans held a two-point lead over Democrats in the generic ballot (43% to 41%).
As for turnout this election, Rasmussen also found that 77% of Republicans say they always vote in midterm elections, compared to 71% of Democrats. The obvious x-factor here is how many people actually turn out.
A storm brewing? (Literally)
As we covered earlier today, weather may pose a threat to some key races. There’s a “prospect of stormy weather hitting states with tight gubernatorial and congressional races, including Indiana, Wisconsin and Iowa.” Iowa and Wisconsin’s races are “tossups” according to Real Clear Politics, and Indiana’s race has both candidates polling within 0.8% of each other. A 2007 study found that rain reduced voter participation in presidential elections a little less than one percent, and an inch of snow reduced turnout about one-half percent. The study found: “Poor weather is also shown to benefit the Republican party’s vote share.”
The GOP continues to dominate fundraising
According to the New York Times, “Republican national party committees, candidates in key House and Senate races and their top unlimited-money outside groups, or “super PACs,” had $337 million on hand as of Sept. 30. Their Democratic counterparts had $285 million in the bank on the same date.”
Despite what you may hear about it being inevitable Democrats will take back the House, I’d say that’s just as “inevitable” as Hillary Clinton’s presidency was…. until election day.
