A new poll from Monmouth University suggests that there is a substantial cohort of “secret Trump voters” who could swing November’s election against Biden.
Voters Believe Strong Support For The President Exists Secretly
The poll from Monmouth University focuses on the key battleground state of Pennsylvania. President Donald Trump just carried the state in the 2016 election, beating his opponent Hillary Clinton by slightly over 44,000 votes, or 0.72%. Currently, Joe Biden is leading Trump in the polls, including in a number of crucial swing counties.
“Even taking into account any polling error from four years ago, Biden is clearly doing well in swing areas. The Democrat has roots in this region which may be helping him, but there seems to be an overall erosion of support for Trump compared to 2016,” argued Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
However, a majority of voters in the area believe that there is a significant number of “secret Trump voters” who aren’t speaking out about their beliefs in public or in polls. 54% of registered voters said that they were surprised when Trump carried Pennsylvania’s electoral college votes in 2016, and 57% think there “a number of so-called secret voters in their communities who support Trump but won’t tell anyone about it”:
Less than half that number (27%) believe there are secret voters for Biden. The suspicion that a secret Trump vote exists is slightly higher in swing counties (62%) and Clinton counties (61%) than in Trump counties (51%). The belief in a secret Biden vote is somewhat more prevalent in Trump counties (32%) than Clinton counties (23%) and swing counties (23%).
“The media consistently reports that Biden is in the lead, but voters remember what happened in 2016. The specter of a secret Trump vote looms large in 2020,” Murray noted.
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We Saw It In 2016 – It Might Just Happen Again!
I certainly think this may be the case. The UK has seen this phenomenon for many years, with pollsters labelling this the “shy Tory” (a colloquial term for the UK Conservatives) effect. Many people just do not want to admit that they are on the right, for fear of social ramifications, which very much exist in 2020, so won’t tell their friends, families, or even pollsters, about their true intentions. But when safe in the polling booth, the secret Trump voters can vote the way they truly feel.
We saw this very strongly in 2016, and there is no reason to think why this wouldn’t happen again, especially given the terrible political climate we face now, which is far more vicious than 4 years ago. The silent majority may just pull through!