Politics

Peace and Prosperity: The Magic Combo for Trump?

By David Kamioner | December 27, 2019

While no competent analyst will tell you with certainty at this point who might win the presidential race of 2020, there are definite historical factors in play that mitigate for and against the re-election of President Donald Trump.

Related: Trump’s Good News: Nasdaq Hits 9,000

Perhaps the major factors, and the ones mightily in favor of the president, are that when modern America feels at peace and strong in its place in the world — and when the economy is doing well — incumbents almost always get re-elected.

Those past elections bode a Trump Electoral College win in November 2020.

Let’s look at the record of incumbents who did not and who did get the second nod.

Of the last four incumbents who failed to win re-election, all faced national security problems, economic slowdowns, or both.

Here is their rundown.

1.) In 1992, GOP incumbent President George H.W. Bush faced a faltering economy. He lost to Bill Clinton.

2.) In 1980, Dem incumbent President Jimmy Carter was looking at a disastrous economic picture and an Iranian hostage situation. He lost to Ronald Reagan.

3.)  In 1968, Dem incumbent President Lyndon Johnson faced a good economy but the morass of the Vietnam War. He couldn’t even get renominated.

4.) And in 1952, Dem incumbent President Harry Truman got out of the race early after he lost the New Hampshire primary. His albatross? The Korean War.

The four incumbents who won, meanwhile, all faced different situations.

Here’s their rundown.

1.) In 2012, Dem incumbent President Barack Obama actually proved the exception to the rule, as two wars were flaring and the economy was not firing on all cylinders. If the GOP had nominated anyone but the hapless Mitt Romney, now a senator from Utah, the Republicans might have won.

But Romney choked on the debate stage — and Obama took the debate and the election.

2.) In 2004, incumbent GOP President George W. Bush was dealing with the same wars. But the economy was humming. He beat John Kerry.

3.) In 1996, incumbent Dem President Bill Clinton had the magic formula — a booming economic landscape and no wars. He easily defeated Bob Dole.

4.) And GOP incumbent President Ronald Reagan in 1984? Good on both counts.

So aside from 2008 — and chalk that up to RINO Mitt — since 1952 at least, for almost 70 years, this analysis has held true.

Whether it cinches the race for Trump is another matter.

But if the current economic and national security scenes remain steady — it certainly works exceedingly well in his favor.

This piece originally appeared in LifeZette and is used by permission.

Read more at LifeZette:
‘It’s No Longer Nancy Pelosi Calling the Shots’ in Her Caucus, Says Steve Scalise
‘Where’s Hunter?’: He and Wife Missing from Joe Biden’s Family Photo
John Bolton Has a New Career: Going After Donald Trump

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