Two weeks.
That’s how long we have until the country goes to vote in the so-called midterm elections. Congressional Republicans are looking to hold their majorities in Congress, while Democrats are hoping to win one, if not both, of the chambers.
So far, Democrats have had the advantage in all general ballot polls. According to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregation of generic ballot polling, Democrats hold the advantage across the board, ranging from +1 to +10.
A new poll reveals a surprising twist
President Trump knows Democrats smell blood and are out revving up the base to boost turnout. That’s why he’s been barnstorming the country, holding rally after rally, particularly in red states where a Democrat is up for reelection. And it may be working. While Democrats hold a lead in the polls, Republicans are beginning to see their chances of holding Congress increase ever so slightly.
A new NBC/WSJ poll shows a tightening in support across the country. From NBC:
Fueled by increased enthusiasm from women, Latinos and young voters for the upcoming midterm election, Democrats hold a 9-point lead among likely voters over Republicans in congressional preference, according to the latest national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
But nearly two weeks before Election Day, the same poll also shows President Donald Trump at his highest job rating yet as president, as well as Republicans with their largest lead on the economy in the poll’s history.
In sum:
1) D’s +9 in national generic ballot
2) In House battlegrounds generic ballot tied
3) Trump approval rating highest of presidency
4) GOP largest lead on economy in poll historyThose do not sound like the components of a “blue wave.” https://t.co/CZMK6qSeOY
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) October 21, 2018
Now, does that mean Republicans keep the House and expand their hold of the Senate? It’s unlikely, at least for the former part. The House is still definitely within the Democrats’ grasp. But Republicans increasingly appear to be able to hold the Senate.
More evidence of a ‘blue wave’ crash
Don’t take my word for it. Listen to David Wasserman, who is an editor of the Cook Political Report, a well-respected, non-partisan polling operation. According to Wasserman, “The past few weeks haven’t really diminished Democrats’ chances of a takeover by that much, but they’ve increased the chances of a small Democratic majority.”
Even Sean Sullivan of The Washington Post admits, “Democrats remain favored to win, but GOP leaders believe they can minimize the number of seats they would lose — and, perhaps, find a path to preserving their advantage in the chamber.”
However, there are still two weeks left before election day, which any seasoned campaigner will tell you is an eternity. Anything can happen between now and then. One area Republicans do have an advantage with is in the all mighty dollar. According to a new New York Times report, Republicans maintain the higher ground when it comes to money in the bank:
The most recent round of campaign finance disclosures, filed Saturday, showed that Republican national party committees, candidates in key House and Senate races and their top unlimited-money outside groups, or “super PACs,” had $337 million on hand as of Sept. 30. Their Democratic counterparts had $285 million in the bank on the same date.
That’s not nothing. This money will definitely be spent like mad in these closing weeks. But, as we learned when Donald Trump bested the well-funded Hillary Clinton, money doesn’t necessarily win political races.
Why 2018 Matters for Trump Supporters
One thing is for sure. The stakes couldn’t be higher in this election. (RELATED: Here’s What’s at Stake for Republicans in the November Midterms.) Many Democrats are threatening impeachment if they take back Congress. Republican National Committee Spokesperson Kayleigh McEnany is sounding the impeachment alarm, warning that President Trump could lose his presidency should Democrats take power.
Like I said before, two weeks is an eternity in politics. With polls tightening, it’s still anyone’s game.
